We test forecast rationality for Brazilian inflation using Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for each month. We consider panel data traditional tests as Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969) and West and McCracken (1998) to verify if forecast errors have zero mean and are uncorrelated with the...

We show that persistence of conditional volatility in large samples could be exaggerated by the existence of structural breaks in the ARCH and GARCH parameters. Our results suggest that extreme persistence frequently observed in index volatility does not necessarily indicate the same level of...

We show that persistence of conditional volatility in large samples could be exaggerated by the existence of structural breaks in the ARCH and GARCH parameters. Our results suggest that extreme persistence frequently observed in index volatility does not necessarily indicate the same level of...

Markowitz optimization, a key component of modern portfolio theory, is prone to estimation errors in mean vector and covariance matrix, leading to unrealistic portfolio weights, limited diversification, and weak out-of-sample performance. In response, a heuristic portfolio resampling approach...