This paper investigates the transmission of US macroeconomic shocks to Germany by employing a large-dimensional structural dynamic factor model. This framework allows us to investigate many transmission channels simultaneously, including 'new' channels like stock markets, foreign direct...

In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), scholars and policymakers turned their attention to the role of uncertainty in amplifying the effects of economic or financial shocks on economic activity. A growing literature has focused on addressing this question. Most works find...

Against the difficult background of analysing aggregated data in this paper core inflation in the euro area is estimated by means of the structural vector autoregressive approach. We demonstrate that the HICP sometimes seems to be a misleading indicator for monetary policy in the euro area. We...

We estimate the oil price pass-through into consumer prices both in the US and in the euro area. In particular, we disentangle the specific effect that an oil price change might have on each disaggregate price, from the effect on all prices that an oil price change might have since it affects...

We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved time-varying inflation target....

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved timevarying inflation target....

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved timevarying inflation target....