Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility … factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q … observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …

We propose a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze the relationship … country-specific capital flow volatility and that the impact of these variables has become even more important since the 2008 …