Why is an inverted yield-curve slope such a powerful predictor of future recessions? We show that a decomposition of the yield curve slope into its expectations and risk premia components helps disentangle the channels that connect fluctuations in Treasury rates and the future state of the...

The equity risk premium (ERP) remains one of the most hotly contested ideas in finance. The disagreement, in practical and theoretical terms, centres on how best to measure the risk of an investment, how to convert this risk measure into an expected return that compensates the investor for...

Many courses in financial economics cover the estimation of forward rates implied in Treasury spot rates. A less well-known extension of this discussion shows how yields on TIPS and similar-maturity conventional Treasury securities may be used to extract the market's inflation expectation. We...

Using the minute-frequency data on Binance, we find strong evidence of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability. The lagged returns of other cryptocurrencies serve as significant predictors of focal cryptocurrencies up to ten minutes, in line with slow information diffusion. The results are...