forecasts?Methods. To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published … known important effects.Findings. Modifying the econometric models to make them more conservative reduced forecast errors … forecast with an equal-weights model forecast reduced error by 7%. (II) Combining forecasts from two Australian models and from …

total mean absolute error exhibited by pre-election polls conducted for the twenty-three studied elections and six specified …

We assess how the PollyVote and its components performed in this election compared to the previous six (1992 to 2012 …). While always predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote, across the 100 days leading to the election on …