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We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios – dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, and book-to-market ratio – by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess...
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book, dividends and earnings, Our analysis includes evidence of predictability on dividend and earnings growth rates on the …
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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel … among the most prominent predictive variables, whereas valuation ratios perform rather poorly. Yet, predictability of market … of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability across different stock markets. Overall, these findings suggests that …
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