We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and … high mobility in and out of poverty. …

Very low work intensity and at-risk-of-poverty are two of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the … Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Their timeliness is critical for tracing the effectiveness of … method of estimating ('nowcasting') very low work intensity and poverty risk using the tax-benefit microsimulation model …

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and … high mobility in and out of poverty. -- vulnerability ; poverty ; ROC ; German panel data …