This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect …). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly associated with expectations even when controlling for aggregate … variance in expectations. Second, we exploit a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of new information on …

This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect …). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly associated with expectations even when controlling for aggregate … variance in expectations. Second, we exploit a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of new information on …

This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect …). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly associated with expectations even when controlling for aggregate … variance in expectations. Second, we exploit a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of new information on …

should intervene in the business cycle. Following Ramey (2011b), we include expectations held by consumers and firms into the …This paper investigates the effects of government spending on key macroeconomic variables in Germany. It contributes to … findings also underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of …

This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect …). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly associated with expectations even when controlling for aggregate … variance in expectations. Second, we exploit a natural experiment to identify the causal effect of new information on …

official activity indicators both for the entire sample of firms and the industrial sector. …

macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that …Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate … expectations are highly dispersed. The degree of dispersion depends on firm size and on how important the general economy is for …

macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that …Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate … expectations are highly dispersed. The degree of dispersion depends on firm size and on how important the general economy is for …

firms change their expectations and expect their business to develop worse. It is conceivable that firm owners are more …Using microdata that serve as the foundation of the ifo Business Climate Index, Germany's leading business cycle … indicator, I examine whether political uncertainty influences how firm owners perceive their present state and future …

for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …