Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 19,049
Cover Image
Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter
Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019 - Preliminary Draft
as potential GDP. A simple modification that is based on the mean of 4- to 12-quarter-ahead forecast errors shares the … and a smooth estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268018
Cover Image
Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter
Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019
and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy institutions, they find that real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992411
Cover Image
Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter
Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2020
meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple … potential GDP. A simple modification based on the mean of 4 to 12 quarter ahead forecast errors shares the favorable real … estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233667
Cover Image
Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309596
Cover Image
Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2018
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277
Cover Image
Monitoring the economy in real time : trends and gaps in real activity and prices
Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012820395
Cover Image
Monitoring the economy in real time : trends and gaps in real activity and prices
Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014321020
Cover Image
The Federal Reserve's output gap : the unreliability of real-time realiability tests
Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2023
Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492758
Cover Image
The real-time properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates
Champagne, Julien; Poulin-Bellisle, Guillaume; Sekkel, … - 2016
deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real time rather than on final estimates of the … same drop in magnitude. We then examine the usefulness of real-time gap estimates for forecasting inflation and find no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490884
Cover Image
Chronic excess capacity and unemployment hysteresis in EU countries : a structural approach
Bassi, Federico - 2020
significant predictors of capacity accumulation, productivity growth and unemployment rates. Moreover, they predict inflation as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292864