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A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...
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The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution … ability to forecast future performance changes over time. Specifically, between 1986 and the early 2000s the yield curve was … quite successful in forecasting monthly changes in commodity prices, but that success diminished in the period following …
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