Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992)...

In this study, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the contemporary Phillips curve relationship in the South African economy using a novel deep learning technique. Our approach incorporates multiple measures of economic slack/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate...

We use a simple macroeconomic model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to investigate the reasons for the recent sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly been caused by commodity price shocks and supply...

The paper integrates the two-pillar Phillips curve, which explains expected inflation by the money growth trend, within a simple macro model. A Taylor-like interest rule contains also a money growth target. The model takes into account serially correlated supply and money demand shocks; the...

Households typically know their nominal wages precisely, but only have a vague idea about he price of the goods and services they consume. Conditional on their nominal wage, this means that inflation is bad news and deflation is good news. If households face Knightian uncertainty about the price...

Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical evidence suggests these decision makers form expectations in a way that deviates from the assumptions in these models: on average, inflation expectations are biased upwards, are...

We investigate the heterogeneity in the effects of monetary policy shocks on the distribution of wages and hours worked, using unique contract-level data from the Czech labor market and identifying monetary policy shocks using a narrative approach based on market suprises in interest rate...

We explore the relationship between inequality, unemployment, and inflation by considering the evidence that low-wage workers are more exposed to business cycle fluctuations. The analysis is undertaken in an extended version of the stock-and-flow consistent agent-based model by Rolim et al....

This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the...

We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures....