Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese...

The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modelled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components - a monotonically decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in...

Smets and Wouters () find that at short- and medium-term horizons stochastic variations in the goods market mark-up are the most important source of inflation variability in the euro area. This article shows that an empirically plausible alternative interpretation is that the estimated price...

This paper studies a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices in a partially observable exchange economy. It shows that the precautionary savings motive in response to estimation uncertainty can dominate the risk aversion effect, resulting in the reduction of the equity premium over short...

One of the most conspicuous features of mergers is that they come in waves that are correlated with increases in share prices and price/earnings ratios. We use a natural way to discriminate between pure stock market influences on firm decisions and other influences by examining merger patterns...

This article investigates empirically whether and to what extent initial capital constraints hinder entrepreneurial performance once the venture has been started. Prior empirical research in this area could investigate this issue only indirectly by lack of data. The key contribution of this...

This article investigates empirically whether and to what extent initial capital constraints hinder entrepreneurial performance once the venture has been started. Prior empirical research in this area could investigate this issue only indirectly by lack of data. The key contribution of this...

A novel method is applied to evaluate the effect of capital constraints on entrepreneurial performance on a panel of 1,000 Dutch entrepreneurs. We find that initial capital constraints hinder entrepreneurs in their performance, even when we control for various human capital and other factors...

We find strong evidence in the OECD country panel data to support the Knightian view that non-diversifiable economic risks shape the equilibrium entrepreneurship in an occupational choice model. Differential social insurance of entrepreneurial and labor risk is found to be statistically...

We assess the diverse roles of institutional investors in impacting survival and performance of chronically underperforming firms and contrast the results for consistently overperforming firms. We find material differences in institutional investor roles between these two samples....