We present extensive evidence that "Risk Premium" is strongly correlated with tail-risk skewness, but very little with volatility. We introduce a new, intuitive definition of skewness, and elicit a linear relationship between the Sharpe ratio of various risk premium strategies (Equity,...

We propose a method for constructing an arbitrage-free multi-asset pricing model which is consistent with a set of observed single- and multi-asset derivative prices. The pricing model is constructed as a random mixture of N reference models, where the distribution of mixture weights is obtained...

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components, with particular importance devoted to the simulation of tail risk scenarios. Commonly used parametric models have been successful in...

We propose an actionable calibration procedure for general Quadratic Hawkes models of order book events (market orders, limit orders, cancellations). One of the main features of such models is to encode not only the influence of past events on future events but also, crucially, the influence of...

The vast majority of recent studies in market impact assess each product individually, and the interactions between their order flows are disregarded. This strong approximation may lead to an underestimation of trading costs and possible contagion effects. Transactions mediate a significant part...

We analyze a proprietary dataset of trades by a single asset manager, comparing their price impact with that of the trades of the rest of the market. In the context of a linear propagator model we find no significant difference between the two, suggesting that both the magnitude and time...