I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond returns. The main predictor factors are associated with point … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …

This paper investigates whether ETF returns lead the returns of underlying bonds and similar style bond funds. Bond … predicted, we find that ETF returns predict its own NAV returns and aggregated ETF returns for each bond also predict the … underlying bond returns on a monthly basis. We show that bond liquidity is the determining factor of the predictability and the …

Using data on government bond yields in Germany and the United States, we show that overseas unspanned factors … for subsequent domestic bond returns. This result is remarkably robust, holding for different sample periods, as well as … term structure models that omit information about foreign bond yields are therefore likely to be misspecified …

We examine the predictive power of the CDS-bond basis for future corporate bond returns. We find that residual basis …, the part of the CDS-bond basis that cannot be explained by a wide range of market frictions such as counterparty risk …, including credit risk and liquidity risk, we find that a bond portfolio formed on the residual basis generates a significant …

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using … excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve … both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market …

Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return … accounting for important features of bond return models such as time varying parameters, volatility dynamics, and unspanned macro … performance of forecast combinations. Consistent with models featuring unspanned macro factors, our forecasts of future bond …

What are the economic determinants of the level and volatility of the second moments of stock and bond returns? We …-1997 change in the stock-bond covariance. Also, the second moments of risk premium news explain most of the variance of the …

not spanned by the current yield curve. The disaster risk factor delivers a counter cycle bond risk premium, and the … risk accounts for a sizable portion of variations in the time-varying bond risk premium …