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Cross-section without factors : correlation risk, strings and asset prices

Distaso, Walter; Mele, Antonio; Vilkov, Grigory - 2021 - This version: January 13, 2021

quantities driven by common factors, which hinders achieving a neat definition of a correlation premium. We formulate a model … returns: an average correlation premium. This premium is both statistically and economically significant, and considerably …-series behavior of the premium for the risk of changes in asset correlations (the premium for correlation risk), including its inverse …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421289

The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk

Hollstein, Fabian; Prokopczuk, Marcel; Wese Simen, Chardin - 2017

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751173

International Stock Return Predictability : The Role of U.S. Volatility Risk

Deng, Yizhe; Jiang, Fuwei; Wang, Yunqi; Zhou, Ti - 2022

This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052

Systemic default and return predictability in the stock and bond markets

Bao, Jack; Hou, Kewei; Zhang, Shaojun - 2016

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011810905

Cross-sectional returns with volatility regimes from a diverse portfolio of emerging and developed equity indices

Sakowski, Paweł; Ślepaczuk, Robert; Wywiał, Mateusz - In: E-Finanse : finansowy kwartalnik internetowy 12 (2016) 2, pp. 23-35

This article aims to extend evaluation of the classic multifactor model of Carhart (1997) for the case of global equity indices and to expand analysis performed in Sakowski et. al. (2015). Our intention is to test several modifications of these models to take into account different dynamics of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539896

Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing

Cotter, John; Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel; Potì, Valerio - 2020

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418356

Option-Implied Correlations, Factor Models, and Market Risk

Buss, Adrian - 2017

Implied correlation and variance risk premium stand out in predicting market returns. However, while the predictive … ability of implied correlation lasts for up to a year, the variance risk premium predicts market returns only for one quarter … ahead. Contrary to the accepted view, implied correlation predicts the market return not through a diversification risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964588

Predicting Equity Risk Premium Using the Smooth Cross-Sectional Tail Risk : The Importance of Correlation

Faias, José Afonso - 2018

We provide a new monthly cross-sectional measure of stock market tail risk, defined as the average of the daily cross-sectional tail risk, rather than the tail risk of the pooled daily returns within a month. The former better captures monthly tail risk rather than merely the tail risk on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012936981

Sentiment lost : the effect of projecting the empirical pricing kernel onto a smaller filtration set

Sala, Carlo; Barone-Adesi, Giovanni - 2015

Supported by empirical examples, this paper provides a theoretical analysis on the impacts of using a suboptimal information set for the estimation of the empirical pricing kernel and, more in general, for the validity of the fundamental theorems of asset pricing. While inferring the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506352

Using the ICAPM to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios: empirical evidence on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Urba´nski, Stanislaw; Leśkow, Jacek - In: Statistics in transition : an international journal of … 21 (2020) 1, pp. 73-94

The aim of this paper is to present the method for estimating the cost of capital of typical portfolios available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The authors introduce the three factor Fama-French model and its two modifications. They also apply the bootstrap method to evaluate the variability of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012183556