We propose a duration-based explanation for the major equity risk factors, including value, profitability, investment, low-risk, and payout factors. Both in the US and globally, these factors invest in firms that earn most of their cash flows in the near future. The factors could therefore be...

I document that the term structure of one-period expected returns on dividend-claims is counter-cyclical: it is downward sloping in good times, but upward sloping in bad times. The counter-cyclical variation is consistent with theories of long-run risk and habit, but these theories cannot...

Using data from a decade of surveys of corporate managers, I find evidence that firms with higher expected stock returns have a higher perceived cost of equity and use higher discount rates in capital budgeting. Variation in expected stock returns, as measured by exposure to equity risk factors,...

We test whether the "representative agent" has intertemporally consistent expectations about time variation in the equity premium. First, we use option prices to estimate the expected future log equity premium (the forward rate) and compare this estimate to the log equity premium estimated in...