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the forecasts, given the local nature of real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a … confidence at the national level, consumer confidence, and price-to-rent ratios. Even better forecast precision can be achieved … by combining individual forecasts. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by reduction in RMSFE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505867
conditional forecast to test the hypothetical effect of an increase of interest rates on house prices. This approach has the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011494870
the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124997
Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461449
product forecasts. We evaluated the predictive content of data releases from point and density forecast perspectives, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015073109
The renewed momentum in the German housing market has led to concerns that Germany is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to detect the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Germany over the sample period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764458
Housing prices in the US rose rapidly from 2000-2007Q3. Based on this evidence, the financial and general press concluded the US experienced a housing bubble. The efficient market theory denies the possibility of a bubble. This paper applies the statistical technique of cointegration to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039155
Although the housing prices in the 127 largest German cities have surged strongly in recent years, there is still no sign of a Germanywide housing bubble. In comparison with 2009, the price of condominiums has risen by around 55 percent. Single-family houses cost between 38 and 45 percent more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011669510
In the light of the unconventional monetary policies conducted by the majority of large central banks around the world, there is an intense debate about their potential impact on the prices of capital assets. Particularly in Germany, skepticism about the sustainability of the recent policy by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485154
and demographics and that supply depends on the profitability of housing construction. We then use the model to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467589