This paper develops an empirical cost of carry model with endogenously conditioned convenience yield. The approach is implemented using monthly prices of all futures contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange between 1985 and 2006. Tests indicate that the model fits the data extremely...

A well-documented finding is that explicitly using jumps cannot efficiently enhance the predictability of crude oil price volatility. To address this issue, we find a phenomenon, "momentum of jumps" (MoJ), that the predictive ability of the jump component is persistent when forecasting the oil...

The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed...

Although the link between oil prices and dollar exchange rates has been frequently analyzed, a clear distinction between prices and nominal exchange rate dynamics and a clarification of the issue of causality has not been provided. In addition, previous studies have mostly neglected...

This paper aims to verify the relationship between the international markets for crude oil and carbon credits. We studied the returns of prices practiced in these markets, focusing on the transmission of shocks between oil prices and carbon credit prices. The methodological approach used...

Recent studies provide contradictory evidence about the impact of speculation on commodity prices. Rather than directly evaluating this relationship we instead use a novel approach to assess if speculation can inform our choice of factor inclusion in modelling oil futures

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...