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This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to incorporating specification and identification uncertainty into a VAR analysis of the dynamic effects of money supply shocks on the macroeconomy. The approach follows Poirier (1991) in averaging over discrete model specifications in forming posterior...
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identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two … signiÖcant effect of money supply shocks on real oil prices. Decomposition of historical oil price shocks shows a significant … role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially …
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Data on monetary aggregates are subject to periodic redefinitions, presumably in part to improve their link to measures of output. Money data are also revised on a regular basis. Taking these data imperfections into account, we reassess the evidence on the marginal predictive content of M1 and...
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Since we are living in a time of multiple crises and geopolitical unrest, it is important to look at how monetary aggregates affect the real economy. This will help us figure out how uncertainty affects the economy and come up with more stable financial and monetary policy measures, especially...
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