I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond returns. The main predictor factors are associated with point … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using … excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve … both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market …

Theory predicts that the equilibrium real interest rate, r*t, and the perceived trend in inflation, ð*t, are key …*t substantially increases the accuracy of long-range interest rate forecasts, helps predict excess bond returns, improves estimates of …

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond …

cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation …

We investigate the predictive ability of financial and macroeconomic variables for German stock and bond returns using … and changes in short term interest rates are key predicators for stock returns. Additionally, for bond returns, exchanges …

We examine the dynamics of bond correlation using a broad sample of US corporate bonds, and document that bond … correlation varies heavily over time. We attribute this variation in bond correlation to variation in risk factor correlation … sentiment decreases, i.e., corporate bond investors exhibit stronger flight-to-quality when their sentiment is low. Thus, low …

We examine the dynamics of bond correlation using a broad sample of US corporate bonds, and document that bond … correlation varies heavily over time. We attribute this variation in bond correlation to variation in risk factor correlation … sentiment decreases, i.e., corporate bond investors exhibit stronger flight-to-quality when their sentiment is low. Thus, low …