We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...

The German minimum wage was introduced in January 2015. This paper investigates the short-term macroeconomic impacts of its introduction. Therefore, an estimated VAR/VECM is used to perform forecasts that are interpreted as counterfactual to the introduction of the minimum wage and compared to...

This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it...