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We apply a two-step strategy to forecast the dynamics of the volatility surface implicit in option prices to all …-post volatility of the minimum-variance portfolio is lower when compared with the equal-weighted portfolio and a minimum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235957
examines their impact on this index's rate of return and volatility. It focuses on deriving analytic European option prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090582
volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian … volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices … compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”). Our evidence suggests use of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555938
Supported by empirical examples, this paper provides a theoretical analysis on the impacts of using a suboptimal information set for the estimation of the empirical pricing kernel and, more in general, for the validity of the fundamental theorems of asset pricing. While inferring the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506352
We present a new finding that the return autocorrelation of underlying stock is an important determinant of expected equity option returns. Using an extended Black-Scholes model incorporating the presence of stock return autocorrelation, we show that expected returns of both call and put options...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849686
We introduce a discrete-time model for log-return dynamics with observable volatility and jumps. Our proposal extends … the class of Realized Volatility heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma (HARG) processes adding a jump component with time … compensating for equity, volatility, and jump risks, the generating function under the risk-neutral measure inherits analytical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904165
We study the real-time characteristics and drivers of jumps in option prices. To this end, we employ high frequency data from the 24-hour E-mini S&P 500 options market. We find that option prices do not jump simultaneously across strikes and maturities and are uncorrelated with jumps in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472845
We examine whether the option market leads the stock market with respect to positive in addition to negative price discovery. We document that out-of-themoney (OTM) option prices, which determine the Risk-Neutral Skewness (RNS) of the underlying stock return's distribution, can embed positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872403
, especially on the BS implied volatility. Implied binomial trees (IBT) models capture the variations of the implied volatility … known as "volatility smile". They provide a discrete approximation to the continuous risk neutral process for the underlying … Barle and Cakici (BC). After the formation of IBT we can estimate the implied local volatility and the state price density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727608
We develop a discrete-time stochastic volatility option pricing model, which exploits the information contained in high …-frequency data. The Realized Volatility (RV) is used as a proxy of the unobservable log-returns volatility. We model its dynamics by … competing time-varying (i.e. GARCH-type) and stochastic volatility pricing models. The pricing improvement can be ascribed to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973052