This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (VAR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE-100) returns for the...

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09....

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil demand and supply shocks. The results show that...

The 2015 workshop on “Recent evolutions of oil and commodity prices”, organized by FEEM, focused on the sharp decline in the oil price in 2014. High crude oil production and slower demand growth explain a large fraction of the current low level of prices, but a complex set of factors is...