We develop an extended mean-variance model to investigate the relationship between variance risk premia (VRP) and expected futures returns in the commodity market. In the presence of stochastic variance, commodity producers trade both futures and options to hedge their exposure to commodity...

Using futures data for the period 1990 - 2008, this paper finds evidence that expansionary monetary policy surprises tend to increase crude and heating oil prices, and contractionary monetary policy shocks increase gold and platinum prices. Our analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity in the...

In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among...

We introduce a new methodology to estimate the latent factors of a multivariate jump diffusion process illustrated with an application to the commodity futures term structure. Specifically, we propose a new state space form and then use a modified Kalman filter to estimate models with latent...

As the world's largest importer, trading of iron ore occupies a pivotal position in China's international trade. In order to seek the decision power of deciding the price for iron ore, China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) listed iron ore futures in October 2013,which has become the world's...

We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial intermediaries in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We decompose changes in futures price volatility into changes in the slopes of traders' demand curves and in...

We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial intermediaries in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We decompose changes in futures price volatility into changes in the slopes of traders' demand curves and in...

We elaborate economic explanations for the time-varying risk of month, quarter and year base load electricity forward contracts traded on the Nord Pool Energy Exchange from January 2006 to March 2010. Daily risk quantities are generated by decomposing realized volatility in its continuous and...

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...