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framework is a bivariate volatility model, where volatility spillovers of either positive or negative sign are allowed for. Our … countries. Regarding the volatility spillovers, such spillovers from bond returns to those of stocks are stronger than the other … results show that by considering time-varying return and volatility spillovers when calculating the risk-minimising portfolio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663407
theory assumes that return shocks can be caused by changes in conditional volatility through a time-varying risk premium. On … leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
We propose a methodology to include night volatility estimates in the day volatility modeling problem with high … the natural relationship between the realized measure and the conditional variance. This improves volatility modeling by … leverage effect and maintains a mathematical structure that facilitates volatility estimation. A class of bivariate models that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160811
allowing the conditional variance of a particular market to depend on past volatility shocks in other markets. The inter …. Extending the model to incorporate leverage effects leads to further improvement in the volatility fit. We compare weight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097898
threshold GARCH family and propose a more general Spline-GTARCH model, which captures high-frequency return volatility, low …-frequency macroeconomic volatility as well as an asymmetric response to past negative news in both autoregressive conditional … numerical example, we find that the proposed more general asymmetric volatility model has better fit, higher persistence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012901903
It has been established in the literature that volatility of stock returns exhibits complex properties of not only … volatility clustering, but also long memory, regime change, and substantial outliers during turbulent and calm periods. Hence …, this paper seeks to analyze volatility spillover, co-movements, independence and contagion in the Chinese, Japanese …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013348418
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720703