In this study, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the contemporary Phillips curve relationship in the South …/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate on the relevance of the Phillips curve in South Africa, where … previous findings have been inconclusive. Our analysis reveals that long-run inflation expectations are the primary driver of …

This paper uses an econometric model and Bayesian estimation to reverse engineer the path of inflation expectations … common measures of expected inflation available from surveys or computed from financial data. In particular, they exhibit the … strongest correlation with the inflation forecasts of the respondents in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. The …

between inflation and real output have been developed. Since these new Phillips curve models are expressed in terms of …

sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly … been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation … future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and …

Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical … average, inflation expectations are biased upwards, are substantially dispersed across individuals, and co-move strongly with … inflation expectations, their determinants, and how inflation expectations shape individuals’ consumption, savings, and …

number of inflation and real activity measures for the United States. We identify demand and supply factors by imposing … demand and supply over the past five decades. The most recent factor estimates indicate that the inflation surge since mid …

volatility turns out to be positive, and there is no important relationship between inflation and volatility. The main policy …

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth" describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation, and … these shocks also generate plausible impulse-responses for unemployment. Although our theory contains no money illusion, no …