The cross-border movement of capital has suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic since December 2019. Nevertheless, it is unrealistic for multinational companies to withdraw giant global value chains (GVCs) overnight because of the pandemic. Instead, active discussions and achievements of deals in...

Happiness levels (states) are volatile and often fluctuate between a happy and unhappy state from one day to the next. The reasons for these shifts are mostly unobservable and not predictable. In this paper, we fit a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the...