Initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) announcements are important economic signals that convey information on the state of the economy but contain substantial estimation error. We investigate how GDP estimation errors affect firms' real decisions and profitability. Consistent with theoretical...

Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...

The issue of EDC became increasingly important in the field of development economics primarily because EDC has been occurring more frequent after the deregulation of global financial flows in the 1970s (Tiruneh 2004, Jones 2015) hitting mostly MICs and LICs. Assessing the probability of an EDC...

Economic theory is prone to hysteresis. Once an idea is adopted, it is difficult to change. In the 1970s, the economics profession abandoned the Keynesian Phillips curve and adopted Milton Friedman's natural rate of unemployment (NRU) hypothesis. The shift was facilitated by a series of lucky...

This paper examines the endogeneity (or lack thereof) of the rate of capacity utilization in the long run at the firm level. We provide economic justification for the adjustment of the desired rate of utilization toward the actual rate on behalf of a cost-minimizing firm after examining the...

A growing empirical literature demonstrates that the size of the expenditure multiplier varies over time, being both larger and consistently greater than one during periods of slow growth and/or recession. This paper contributes to the theory of the time-varying multiplier. It is shown that a...

This paper examines the endogeneity (or lack thereof) of the rate of capacity utilization in the long run at the firm level. We provide economic justification for the adjustment of the desired rate of utilization toward the actual rate on behalf of a cost-minimizing firm after examining the...

This paper investigates the relationship between asset markets and business cycles with regard to the U.S. economy. We consider the Goldman Sachs approach (2003) developed to study the dynamics of financial balances. By means of a small econometric model we find that asset market dynamics are...

Because plant deaths destroy specific capital with large local economic impacts and potentially important macroeconomic effects, understanding the causes of deaths and, in particular, why they are concentrated in cyclical downturns, is important. The reallocation-timing hypothesis posits that...

We decompose total disagreement about macro variables into the disagreement among optimists (i.e., forecasters whose forecast exceeds a certain threshold) and pessimists. Optimistic (pessimistic) forecasters tend to disagree more in good (bad) times. Pessimistic (optimistic) disagreement...