This paper studies the impact of the state-dependent risk of a government default on the correlation of the scal balance and current account. We use a small open economy model where nonlinear risk premia arise endogenously when the government operates close to its scal limit, i.e. the maximum...

This paper extends the sovereign default model described in Arellano (2008) by including both domestic and foreign debts. The government issues debt and can either inflate away its domestic debt or default on its external component. Under a discretionary policy, the existence of domestic debt...

This study explores the risk premia embedded in sovereign default swaps using a term structure model. The risk premia remunerate investors for unexpected changes in the default intensity. A number of interesting results emerge from the analysis. First, the risk premia contribution to the spreads...