We examine whether finance professionals deviate from Bayes’ theorem on the processing of nondiagnostic information when forecasting quarterly earnings. Using field data from sell-side financial analysts and employing a regression discontinuity design, we find that analysts whose forecasts...

The belief that home ownership makes people happy is probably one of the most widespread intuitive theories of happiness. However, whether it is accurate is an open question. Based on individual panel data, we explore whether home buyers systematically overestimate the life satisfaction...

The belief that home ownership makes people happy is probably one of the most widespread intuitive theories of happiness. However, whether it is accurate is an open question. Based on individual panel data, we explore whether home buyers systematically overestimate the life satisfaction...

The life-cycle hypothesis implies that consumption would not decline at retirement. However, several studies found relevant declines in food consumption after retirement for the United States. Others concluded that this contradiction of the life-cycle hypothesis is solved by allowing for broader...

The life-cycle hypothesis implies that consumption would not decline at retirement. However, several studies found relevant declines in food consumption after retirement for the United States. Others concluded that this contradiction of the life-cycle hypothesis is solved by allowing for broader...

In dieser Analyse schätzen wir den Einfluss von Gewohnheits-(Habits) gegenüber Vergleichsmotiven (Envy) zur Erklärung des Konsumverhaltens US-amerikanischer Haushalte. Wir verwenden Daten der seit August 2013 erhältlichen Konsumerhebungen des Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) für den...

This paper examines the extent to which consumption in Russian households responds to exogenous income shocks. During the time period studied in this paper (1994-1998), Russia experienced two major economic crises. Both featured extreme movements in the real ruble-dollar exchange rate. The price...

We evaluate the impact of increased income uncertainty and financial liberalization in the US on consumption volatility and household welfare. We estimate Euler equations and measure the volatility of unpredictable changes in consumption as the squared Euler equation residuals. We directly...