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This paper analyzes whether realized higher moments are able to predict out-of-sample sovereign bond returns using high-frequency data from the European bond market. We study bond return predictability over tranquil and crisis periods and across core and periphery markets at the index and...
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The paper aims to analyse the drivers of changes in European equity tail risk. For this purpose, the paper uses a panel data model with fixed effects based on five explanatory variables including the VIX, the variance risk premium (VRP), the one-year lagged slope of the riskless term-structure,...
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