The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting … expected inflation we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data …, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect. The extracted unexpected inflation is compared …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

fluctuations. Shifts in perceived uncertainty can also affect real activity and inflation through a confidence channel, as they …

household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain … in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries … frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the …