Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The...

In der aktuellen Debatte zur Rekommunalisierung von Stromanbietern wird häufig das Argument der sicheren Versorgung zu niedrigen Preisen von Vertretern öffentlicher Eigentümer angeführt. Während die sichere Belieferung mit Strom im Rahmen der Grundversorgung gesetzlich vorgeschrieben ist,...

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, when base futures prices dropped by more than 40 percent. In this paper we determine the fundamental components of electricity futures prices and quantify their impact on the price drop as well as on...

The German reserve power market was subject to important regulatory changes in recent years. A new market design was created by synchronization and interconnection of the four control areas. In this paper, we analyze whether or not the reforms led to lower prices for minute reserve power (MRP)....

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden verschiedene fundamentale Prognosemodelle für die Preise von stündlichen Day-Ahead Elektrizitätskontrakten auf den deutschen Markt geschätzt und getestet. Dabei wird ein breites Spektrum an fundamentalen Variablen berücksichtigt, um den spezifischen...

In this paper, we develop a market screening model to detect inconstancies in price changes. Although there is a long history of industrial organization research of collusion, price setting behavior, and conduct - a robust model to detect structural changes in market structure was missing so...