We examine whether option prices correct for predictable bias in stock prices associated with accounting anomalies. Evidence from put-call parity violations suggests that they do not. Rather, option prices accurately track contemporaneous stock prices. Further analysis suggests that high costs...

Using monthly data from 01/1985 to 12/2012, we find that the accounting valuation-based predictor introduced in Lee, Myers, and Swaminathan (1999) has excellent in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance. Our finding suggests that the accounting valuation-based predictor does not suffer...

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

In recent studies, the analysts' consensus forecasts are widely used as a proxy for the unobservable market's consensus expectation of future earnings. As prior studies indicate, the analysts' consensus forecasts measure the true underlying construct with errors and the errors may vary...

In this study, we examine the predictability of firm-specific stock price crashes using modern machine learning techniques and develop a crash prediction model that utilizes both financial ratios and textual data from the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of 10-K files. We show that...

More than 650 U.S. public company executives predict the stock price response to their quarterly financial reports and share their prediction after under a nondisclosure agreement. Despite having full knowledge of the reports before their release, executives’ estimates differ from realized...

Measures of a firm's financial strength forecast stock returns. The relation between financial condition and future returns, however, is consistent with two explanations: (1) changes in investors' expectations are impounded gradually over time and, (2) riskier firms - with higher discount rates...

This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market-changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing...

The study reviews equity valuation, and proposes an alternative equity valuation model based on a random process modelling of earnings and equity growth. A Markov process is used to model earnings, standardized as earnings to book value, and book value based on rating category. This assumes a...