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Is there hope for the expectations hypothesis?
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel - 2024
Most macroeconomic models impose a tight link between expected future short rates and the term structure of interest rates via the expectations hypothesis (EH). While the EH has been systematically rejected in the data, existing work evaluating the EH generally assumes either full-information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014519064
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Real-time consideration of systematic patterns in Maltese GDP data and revisions
Debono, Nathaniel - 2024
Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461449
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Corn yield dynamics and weather shocks : climate change implications for the U.S. corn belt
McFadden, Jonathan R.; Miranowski, John A. - In: Climate change economics 11 (2020) 1, pp. 1-27
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227518
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Forecasting profitability
Rosenzweig, Mark; Udry, Christopher - 2013
areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … compared with farmers without access to forecasts. Even modest improvements in forecast skill would substantially increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782148
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Are the forecasts of professionals compatible with the taylor rule? : evidence from the euro area
Czudaj, Robert - In: Macroeconomic dynamics 27 (2023) 3, pp. 698-717
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247547
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The effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated DSGE model for the Euro area : the role of expectations
Cardani, Roberta; Paccagnini, Alessia; Bekiros, Stelios - 2016
We assess the effectiveness of the forward guidance undertaken by European Central Bank using a standard medium-scale DSGE model à la Smets and Wouters (2007). Exploiting data on expectations from surveys, we show that incorporating expectations should be crucial in performance evaluation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583778
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The expectational effects of news in business cycles : evidence from forecast data
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan - In: Journal of monetary economics 116 (2020), pp. 184-200
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495170
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Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle
Müller, Tobias; Christoffel, Kai; Mazelis, Falk; … - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 137 (2022), pp. 1-39
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013464694
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Rationality and Forecasting Accuracy of Exchange Rate Expectations : Evidence from Survey-Based Forecasts
Ince, Onur - 2019
2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the forecasts for developing countries are biased at all forecast horizons. For … increases again at the 24-month horizon. Based on the magnitude of the forecast errors and the direction of change, long … forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903718
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Government spending shocks in open economy VARs
Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca - In: Journal of international economics 99 (2016), pp. 68-84
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011655160