In this note we discuss the paper on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2012). In particular we discuss issues related to forecast origins and forecast horizons when higher frequency exchange rate movements are predicted using lower frequency quarterly macroaggregates

The purpose of this study is to determine an econometric model forecasting the nominal exchange rate between the Brazilian Real and the American Dollar. Monthly data from January, 1995 through February, 2001 is used. The Dickey-Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) for the existence of a...

In recent years support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving...

In recent years, support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a...

In this study, we examine the forecastability of a specific neural network architecture called General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and compare its performance with a variety of forecasting techniques, including Multi-Layered Feedforward Network (MLFN), multivariate transfer function, and...

We carry out a large-scale investigation of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market, using daily data over a maximum of forty years for thirty developed and emerging market currencies. Employing a stepwise test to safeguard against data-snooping bias and examining over 21,000...

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...