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Inflation expectations are key to economic activity, and in the current economic climate of a heated labor market, they are central to the policy debate. At the same time, a growing literature on inattention suggests that individuals, and therefore individual behavior, may not be sensitive to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012135707
In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014491765
We survey samples of German firms and households to document novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among the two groups. First, firms' expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less dispersed than households', consistent with higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818403
We leverage survey data from Germany, Italy, and the US to document several novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among firms and households. First, firms’ expectations about the central bank policy rate, inflation, and aggregate unemployment are more aligned with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491615
We survey samples of German firms and households to document novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among the two groups. First, firms' expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less dispersed than households', consistent with higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886985
We use surveys of German households and firms to study the extent of information frictions among different groups of economic agents. Firms' expectations about the central bank policy rate, inflation, and aggregate unemployment are more aligned with expert forecasts and less dispersed than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013335954
expectations. Extrapolative income expectations help explain state-dependent household debt cycles qualitatively and quantitatively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635678
This paper investigates the dynamic interactions of the cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes and the … frequency vector autoregression (VAR). It shows that potential causalities for inflation, relative price variability, relative … price skewness, and output growth can be successfully detected by the MFVAR. The cross-section distribution of sectoral …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013258295
The question of the economic policy uncertainty, interest rate and oil price volatility and their effects on investor … policy uncertainty, interest rate and oil price uncertainty have disproportionately asymmetric effects on OECD investor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500444