We test forecast rationality for Brazilian inflation using Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for each month. We consider panel data traditional tests as Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969) and West and McCracken (1998) to verify if forecast errors have zero mean and are uncorrelated with the...

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates affect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade flows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real effective exchange is overvalued or...

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange rate that guarantees the stability of the net foreign asset position over time. An econometric model is estimated using a Vector Error...

This paper aims to test the current account approach for UK and USA data. In order to do this it's used Johansen, S. and A. R. Swensen (1999) methodology to test exactly a restriction implied by a rational expectation model. All the parameters are estimated directly from the econometric model...

The Present Value Model (PVM) – in which current security prices depend upon the present value of future discounted dividends, where the discount rate is equivalent to the required rate of return – is one of the long-standing principles of Finance Theory. The objective of this work is to...