This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

We show that the moving averages (MAs) of stock market indices act as psychological barriers and affect investors' trading. Market indices do not move continuously near their MAs, especially in markets dominated by unsophisticated investors. Utilizing international markets data, we show that the...