This study investigates how credit ratings affect firm innovation. By exploiting sovereign downgrades as an exogenous shock to corporate credit ratings, we show that a sovereign downgrade leads to significant reductions in innovation among firms that have a rating at the sovereign bound ex ante....

This paper revisits the performance of frequently used risk forecasting methods, such as the Value-at-Risk models. The aim is to analyze its performance, and mitigate its pitfalls by incorporating conditional variance estimates, as generated by a GARCH model. Notably, this paper tests several...

Within bank activities, which is normally defined as the joint exercise of savings collection and credit supply, risk-taking is natural, as in many human activities. Among risks related to credit intermediation, credit risk assumes particular importance. It is most simply defined as the...

The scope of this study is to investigate the capability of AI methods to accurately detect and predict credit risks based on retail borrowers' features. The comparison of logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest showed that machine learning methods are able to predict credit...

Recent studies examining the effects of a credit rating on firms’ capital structure and adjustment of capital structure to target have focused predominantly on non-financial firms, with virtually no attention given to financial institutions. Using an international sample of 391 rated banks...

Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...

This paper examines to what extent household leverage - as measured by the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio - predicts delinquency in Peru's consumer credit market. A model is estimated to assess the relation between delinquency and the DTI ratio. The initial and current DTI ratios are assessed as...

In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...