We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based equity valuation estimates to examine whether analysts can assess the state-contingent risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' scenario-based valuations captures the riskiness of operations and...

Purpose: In this paper we try to explain US stock market variations and cash flow fundamentals by employing three different book-valued based ratios, First, we explore the explanatory capacity of the simple book-market ratio on time-varying expected returns, and procced on altering its...

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit from this contemporaneous link by differentiating between "able" and "lucky" analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records alone are...

We document that investors can actually profit from the contemporaneous link between earnings accuracy and recommendation profitability (Loh and Mian (2006)). Differentiating between "able" and "lucky" analysts we suggest an implementable, i.e. look-ahead bias free, trading strategy that yields...

We study whether the financial analysts' concern to maintain friendly relationships with firms' managers in order to preserve their access to ‘soft' qualitative information entice them to issue pessimistic (“earnings surprise management” hypothesis) or optimistic (“management access”...

This paper addresses the role of technical analysis as potential investment tool for individual retail investors by analysing 2,165 daily forecasts on the DAX between 2015 and 2016. My results suggest that technical analysis may generally provide helpful information to retail investors since its...

We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we...

We combine annual stock market data for the most important equity markets of the last four centuries: the Netherlands/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast returns. The documented predictability holds for...

Status quo bias is a systematic cognitive error which makes it difficult for individuals to make decisions independently of the currently dominant situation. This study pursues the question of whether bond market analysts are affected by status quo bias. We evaluated interest rate forecast...

Forecasting the future prices of stock by analyzing the past and current price movements in determining the trend are always areas of interest of Chartists who believe in studying the action of the market itself rather than the past and current performances of the company. Stock price prediction...