We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about "sudden stop" events. "Good" news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansion, increasing the...

During the past two decades, financial markets across the globe have experienced sporadic waves of crashes. Such waves raise concerns about the vulnerability of global financial markets and the transmission mechanisms of shocks beyond borders. The current study examines the co-movement of stock...