in their unemployment rate and not a decline in labour force participation rate. Policymakers should take account of …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

margin since it is driven by flows from permanent wage employment to unemployment. We also show that older, non-Latvian and …