We examine structural differences in growth vulnerabilities across countries resulting from time-varying financial risk. Considering differences in trade openness, financial sector size, the public spending ratio and government effectiveness, our findings suggest the existence of both a...

In dieser Studie werden die Effekte von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik auf Konsumentenerwartungen in Szenarien von hohem und niedrigem öffentlichen Schuldenstand empirisch untersucht. In Reaktion auf einen Anstieg der Staatsausgaben steigen Konsumpläne bei niedrigem, fallen jedoch bei hohem...

We study how consumers assess the effects of monetary policy shocks in euro area countries using survey data. Our findings provide evidence that consumers form their expectations in a way that is consistent with empirical and theoretical models of the monetary transmission mechanism, both at the...

We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...

We study the revision of survey expectations in response to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify in vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions. We find that survey respondents distinguish between movements along the Phillips curve and shifts of the Phillips curve, depending on the...

We use survey data to study how consumers assess the macroeconomic effects of structural oil market shocks on the U.S. economy using vector autoregressive models. To structurally decompose oil price changes, we impose sign restrictions on impulse responses. We find that the survey respondents'...

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on several measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate structural vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse...