This paper extends a standard New Keynesian model by introducing anticipated shocks to inflation, output, and interest rates, and by incorporating forward-looking, forecast-targeting Taylor rules. The latter aspect is parsimoniously modeled through the presence of an expected future interest...

This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation...