This paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - a survey measure of U.S. households' expectations about current and future economic conditions - responds to structural oil supply and demand shocks. We find that the response to an observed increase in...

We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...

In this work, we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and GDP, employing the latter as...

An n-variable structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) can be identified (up to shock order) from the evolution of the residual covariance across time if the structural shocks exhibit heteroskedasticity (Rigobon (2003), Sentana and Fiorentini (2001)). However, the path of residual covariances...

In this work, we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector auto-regression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and GDP, employing the latter as...

We identify a 'risk news' shock in a vector autoregression (VAR), modifying Barsky and Sims's procedure, while incorporating sign restrictions to simultaneously identify monetary policy, technology and demand shocks. The VAR-identifed risk news shock is estimated to account for around 2%-12% of...

An n-variable structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) can be identified (up to shock order) from the evolution of the residual covariance across time if the structural shocks exhibit heteroskedasticity (Rigobon (2003), Sentana and Fiorentini (2001)). However, the path of residual covariances is...

This paper seeks to identify the largest two shocks that can explain the movement in Canadian GDP for the period 1981Q1 to 2011Q4. I employ a very flexible identification method proposed by Uhlig (2003) that allows us to identify the key shocks from the time series data without imposing any...

This article estimates the effects of monetary policy on components of aggregate demand using quarterly data on Turkish economy from 1987–2008 by means of structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology. This study adopts Uhlig's (2005) sign restrictions on the impulse responses of main...

This paper examines the transmission channels through which property markets propagate shocks to the real economy. Using a four-equation model which portrays the theoretical inter-linkages between real estate value and other components of the economy, our findings suggest that in the short run,...