The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy....

In Denmark official quarterly national accounts are only available for the period since 1977. The paper constructs a set of summary non-seasonally adjusted quarterly national accounts for Denmark for 1948-2010 in current and constant prices as well as a set of other key quarterly macroeconomic...

We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy....

We explore the implications of shocks to expected future productivity in a setting with limited enforcement of financial contracts. As in Lorenzoni andWalentin (2007) optimal financial contracts under limited enforcement imply that to obtain external finance firms have to post collateral in...

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable...

In this paper we present Aino 3.0, the latest vintage of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used at the Bank of Finland for policy analysis. Aino 3.0 is a small-open economy DSGE model at the intersection of the recent literatures on so-called TANK (“Two-Agent New...

We present an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles using Bayesian methods. Bubbles emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. We identify a sentiment shock that drives the movements of...

The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...

Crises are triggered by the inherent uncertainty of the capitalist system. We represent this uncertainty in an open economy real business cycle model of the UK by including non-stationary productivity shocks. A random sequence of good or bad shocks will accumulate, producing euphorias and...