Similar to many sub-Saharan African countries, Sudan has inherited a dual economy in the immediate post-independence era where a large agriculture-based rural traditional sector coexisted with a small non-agricultural modern sector. This functional dualism remained until the first oil shipment...

Using a multi-industry real business cycle model, we empirically examine the microeconomic origins of aggregate tail risks. Our model, estimated using industry-level data from 1972 to 2016, indicates that industry-specific shocks account for most of the third and fourth moments of GDP growth

This paper looks at the implications of heterogeneous beliefs for inflation dynamics. Following a monetary policy shock, inflation peaks after output, is inertial, and can be characterized by a Hybrid Phillips Curve. It presents a novel channel through which systematic monetary policy can affect...

This paper looks at the implications of heterogeneous beliefs for inflation dynamics. Following a monetary policy shock, inflation peaks after output, is inertial, and can be characterized by a Hybrid Phillips Curve. It presents a novel channel through which systematic monetary policy can affect...

How does intranational factor mobility shape the welfare effects of a trade shock? I provide evidence that during WWI, a demand shock emanated from belligerent countries and affected neutral Spain. Within Spain, labor predominantly reallocated locally, while the most affected provinces...

The paper focuses on short run macroeconomic dynamics triggered by demand side shocks. In particular, the paper analyzes, in a general equilibrium framework, the impact of transitory demand side shocks on the behavior of macroeconomic variables and examines the relevance of policy instruments...

In a broad class of macroeconomic models with production networks, it is difficult to discern which set of structural relationships between sectors amplify shocks and shape aggregate outcomes. As a remedy, we provide a formula that sidesteps this issue by considering linkages in isolation,...

We decompose the macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 in the US using three production network measures. First, we estimate the aggregate indirect effect of sectoral employment shocks, finding these “network spillovers” to account for ≈72% of the decline in real GDP over the second quarter of...

This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an...

One of the key lessons of the crisis which began in 2007 has been the need to strengthen the risk coverage of the capital framework. In response, the Basel Committee in July 2009 completed a number of critical reforms to the Basel II framework which will raise capital requirements for the...