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I explore whether time-series methods exploiting the long-run equilibrium properties of the housing market might have detected the disequilibrium in U.S. house prices which pre-dated the Great Recession as it was building up. Based on real-time data, I show that a VAR in levels identified as in...
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.S. households' expectations about current and future economic conditions - responds to structural oil supply and demand shocks. We … supply shocks have little effect on the ICS, other oil demand shocks such as a precautionary demand shock, for example, have … a statistically significant negative impact over a two-year horizon. The effect of aggregate demand shocks associated …
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