The COVID-19 crisis may have widely and permanently altered the labor market through the demand for skills. Crises tend to accelerate technological change. Previous recent crises were characterized by an acceleration of automation, which generally led to a decrease in middle-income jobs with...

We assess the contribution of "undue optimism" (Pigou) to short-run fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run, but is not contemporaneously observed by market participants. In order to recover optimism shocks...

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higherorder risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical...

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical...

This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of anonymous individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing...

Can the standard search-and-matching labor market model replicate the business cycle fluctuations of the job finding rate and the unemployment rate? In the odel, these fluctuations are driven by movements in productivity. This paper inestigates the sources of productivity fluctuations that are...

Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...